Well, I've had a pretty tough bowl season thus far but all of that can change and turn my negative into a positive with a straight up win by Oklahoma over Florida.

The thing I keep finding astounding is this:  at the time of this writing, Oklahoma is now @ +200.  5 Dimes is paying you 2:1 on your money for Oklahoma who averaged 54 points per game offensively.  I find that just remarkable.  Games like this in every sport inspire a lot of opinions.  There is no question in my mind that the Big 12 has really struggled this bowl season.  I didn't see it coming at all.  The 2 games that are really telling to me are:  Oklahoma State being worn down by Oregon in the 2nd half....Oklahoma State does have a bit of an excuse with Dez Bryant missing significant time in the 2nd half of that game therefore making Okie State one-dimensional.  It still doesn't excuse the absolute horrid defense they were playing in the 2nd half.  The 2nd game was the Texas game.  If Texas was really the team that everyone thought they were, they should've chewed up Ohio State and spit them out even though Tressel is probably the best college football coach in the country and the 2008-2009 vintage Buckeyes have a much different look than the last 2 teams that lost to Florida and LSU.  Ohio State has a different look because of those 2 games.  Tressel is trying to adapt.  The point is that Texas should have taken this Ohio State team to task and they didn't.  I lay a lot of that blame on Mack Brown because he simply is not a very good coach in my opinion.  He's gotten better recently because of better staff.  Even with all of those things laid out, Texas should have covered that pointspread easily but didn't.  I believe the "Big 12 Sucks" hype is warranted.

But how does that translate to tonight?  Well, Oklahoma has established their 1 loss record by playing the majority of their schedule against the Big 12.  However, there is the little matter of their game vs Cincinnati in Norman in September.  I don't know if any of you saw this game but this was an absolute spanking.  Oklahoma barely ended up covering the spread but that was because they established a 40 point lead before anyone could say "BOO".  This team is offensively stout.  I worry about Florida because, honestly, my opinion is that Alabama was the better team for 3 quarters.  Now, Florida was, no doubt, the best team in the 4th quarter but Alabama really had Florida on their heels for 3 quarters.

The real question is this:  can Oklahoma score in the mid-30's tonight?  I answer that question "YES".  But I do have a concern:  we're again looking at a month layoff for both teams.  When you bet an offense like Oklahoma, you are counting on them to come out and pick up where they left off a month ago.  That is not necessarily a good thing.  Here's why I feel OK with it:  Mr. Bob Stoops.  Yes, Mr. Bob Stoops has lost a few bowl games in a row as of late.  One thing I have learned about Coach Stoops in bowl games is:  when he is expected to win, he usually doesn't.  When he is not expected to win, look out because he is pissed and ready to prove to the world that they are sadly mistaken.  Stoops absolutely relishes this role.  Ask the 2001 Florida State Seminoles how they felt going into a National Championship Game versus an underdog Sooner team.  And Josh Heupel is no where close to Sam Bradford.  For the record, I realize and understand that Florida has the same issues as Oklahoma as far as layoff is concerned.  However, when your bread and butter is an offense that has to execute after a month layoff, Oklahoma has a lot more to lose with a slow start than Florida does because Florida can make up for lack of execution by going out and hitting a Sooner in the teeth and making plays defensively which I'm not sure Oklahoma can make happen even though I think Oklahoma keeps Florida somewhat contained to a score of around 30.

The bottom line for me is that Stoops in an underdog role.  I'll do it everytime.  He finds ways to win these kinds of games.  I have a lot of respect for Urban Meyer and what he has done.  Meyer is an outstanding coach but the track record of Stoops as an underdog in big games speaks volumes about his mentality and competitive fire.  The Sooners find a way to win tonight versus a very good Florida team in a very entertaining National Championship Game.  My plays are:

Oklahoma (+5) (-106) (1.59 units to win 1.5 units)

Oklahoma ML (+180) (1 unit to win 1.8 units)

It's been fun blogging this college bowl season.  I don't do basketball very much so I probably wont be back around until April when baseball starts.  As always, good luck to all with whatever side you have.

E

First of all, I want to publicly apologize for those horrid selections yesterday.  Pitt got shutout in a bowl game and LSU was, hands down, the better team last night.  Georgia Tech was never in it.  I've never thought much of Les Miles as a head football coach.  Last night made me change my tune.  Congratulations to LSU for pounding my selected Yellow Jackets into oblivion.

Now, for today:

Michigan State (+9) over Georgia.....I like the Michigan State running game over a Georgia defense that seems woefully inadequate.  Georgia has had a lot of rest here but this game smells a lot like the Michigan ML victory over Florida last year.  Florida had a lot of preseason hype in 2007 after blasting Ohio State in the National Title game; same with Georgia this year.  Conventional wisdom says that the SEC always puts a butt-whippin' on the Big Ten; same scenario last year with Florida over Michigan.  I actually think both teams should score at will.  So, my theory is to always take the underdog in high scoring affairs.  I'm thinkin' 38-35 today; don't know which side is the winner but, in any event, my play is:

Michigan State (+9) (1.02 units to win 1 unit) over Georgia

USC (-9) over Penn State......USC has consistently proven that they own the Big 10.  As much as I like this Penn State team, they are still the prototypical Big 10 team.  Run the ball and let the passing game fill in the gaps.  Note to the Big 10:  that does not work against USC.  The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again.  If Penn State comes out and plays the same game as Ohio State did earlier in the year @ USC, my evaluation says that they'll get their doors blown off.  JoePa has proven in the distant past that he can put together a game plan that is intriguing (the '88 win over Miami-Fla's Testaverde squad specifically comes to mind), however, USC's defense is allowing a sickening 7.8 points per game.  For Penn State to have any chance they're going to have to utilize their speed guys and get them in space and hope they can make plays (I'm not convinced they can even make plays then).  JoePa can put together a good game plan but they still have to score.  Double digits for the Nitany Lions today would be considered a moral victory in my opinion.  My play is:

USC (-9) (1.08 units to win 1 unit) over Penn State

Virginia Tech ML over Cincinnati......A lot of good indicators I use seem to suggest a Vagie Tech straight up victory over Cincinnati.  I love what HC Kelly has done with Cincy.  It is very impressive.  However, Va Tech should be able to contain Cincy's offense and keep them below 20 points in my estimation as Vagie Tech is giving up 17.5 ppg on average defensively.  While Va Tech has, in my eyes, a clear defensive advantage, the question comes on offense.  The Hokies have struggled all year putting up points against some pretty meager opponents.  I'm betting against the come here and going to throw the motivation and coaching factors in here to get our 20 points.  Beamer lost straight up last year to Kansas in their bowl game.  I think that plays for some motivation for Va Tech to avenge that embarrassing loss.  Also, Beamer getting close to a month to prepare seems like advantage Va Tech even though I like Kelly a lot.  I think Va Tech finds a way to avenge their loss last year with a straight up victory over Cincy.  So, my play is:

Va Tech ML (+122) over Cincinnati (1 unit to win 1.22 units)

As always, good luck to all.  Here's to a better New Years Day than yesterday's disastrous New Years Eve.

E

This is one of those games that if you can answer the following question correctly,  you have yourself a winner.  That question is:

Can LSU's defense slow Georgia Tech's running game down?  After reviewing this thoroughly, I keep coming back to the same answer and that answer is "NO".  Georgia Tech averages 282 ypg rushing and the LSU defense averages giving up 105 ypg rushing.  The average of those 2 numbers is 193.5 ypg.  LSU's major weakness on defense is in their secondary however.  But, for me, the overrider on this is Paul Johnson.  Paul Johnson is the former Navy coach where they ran the ball exclusively.  Everyone and their Mom knew what Navy was going to do on every play yet Navy was still successful.  I see the same thing happening here to LSU.  LSU's dual defensive coordinator system has, in my opinion, been an utter disaster.  LSU still has great athletes but I think Johnson finds a way to get this done.  If Georgia Tech does not run the ball for over 200 yards today, they will lose.  Plain and simple.  Georgia Tech's dismantling of Georgia's rush defense in their final game should continue here.

So, my play for 2 units is as follows:

Georgia Tech (-4) (2.18 units to win 2 units @ -109)

Good luck to all.

E

I'm going to go with Pitt here strictly because of the injury factor of Jacquizz Rodgers, the running back for Oregon State.  Some teams just do not function correctly once their main cog is not available.  Having watched the Beavers against Arizona and Oregon to finish off the season, I think they are leaking oil a bit.  I also don't necessarily like taking teams that will have to rely heavily on the pass after the long layoff.  Pitt, at least, has played in December while the layoff for Oregon State has been over a month and, without Rodgers, it may take them a quarter or so to find their bearings.

I am always very concerned playing Pitt because of Wanny.  Wanny just seems so erratic on the sideline.  Some games he does fine; others he seems without a clue.  I'm gonna take a gander here on the Pitt moneyline and hope that this game does not become a battle of wits because Riley would outcoach Wanny 9 times out of 10.  So, my play is:

Pittsburgh ML (+108) (1 unit to win 1.08 units)

Good luck to all.

E

I'm turncoating on Mizzou in this one.  This is a game that has the potential to be a huge money maker.  My big problem with this line is:  Mizzou doesnt want to be in San Antonio.  They felt like they were screwed when Okie State got the invite to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl when they were the Big 12 North representative in the Big 12 Championship Game.  It does not appear to me that Mizzou's head is in this one.

Northwestern gets a lot of their injured guys back specifically the all-everything RB Sutton for Northwestern who was doing everything for them before he was injured.  I absolutely love Fitzgerald as a coach and he will have his players motivated and prepared to play this game.  Pinkel will have a hard time getting his guys motivated to play this game.  Mizzou, by far, has a talent advantage.  But, as we have seen thus far in these bowl games, that does not matter if your players are not motivated to play.  Northwestern plays against this offense every day and also plays against the likes of Purdue.  Mizzou's offense will not throw anything at Northwestern that they have not seen already.

Gonna go bigger with these plays.  Doing the following:

Northwestern (+12) (4.4 units to win 4 units)

Northwestern ML (1 unit to win 3.6 units @ +360)

Good luck as always.

E

I've been looking hard at this game and I'm letting my gut take over on this one.  Northern Illinois, I believe, has the better defense but if you break this matchup down, statistically, it is hard not to like Louisana Tech.  UNI allows about 146 rushing yards per game while the bulk of Louisana Tech's offensive production has come on the ground.  La Tech, just like last year, has been atrocious in pass defense but passing is really not UNI's cup of tea (really, offensively, UNI struggles in just about every aspect).

So, if you look at it this way combining the home field advantage for La Tech, it would seem that the money going towards La Tech here lately would be smart money.  But, I'm gonna go contrarian on this one.  UNI, in general, has been strong defensively.  They have struggled to put points on the board, especially, later in the season against some quality competition in Ball State and Navy.  But, I think UNI can win this with strong defense.  They must stop the run which will be Task #1 tonight.  If they can keep the La Tech ground game in check (below 150 yards rushing) and La Tech follows their usual pattern of crappy defense, UNI can win this one.

I'll go against all the money today and do this:

Northern Illinois +122 on the ML (1 unit to win 1.22 units)

Good luck to all.

E

Well, after the debacle last night in Detroit, I'm now down money.  I think the shocker last night is how inept the Central Michigan offense looked.  I really didn't anticipate that.  A poor choice in bet from me.  Oh well, down the road we go..........

North Carolina (+2.5) over West Virginia.....for me, this game is all about coaching.  Butch Davis has gotten this team to be pretty competitive in a short amount of time.  He has the athletes to compete and Pat White shouldn't throw anything at them that makes their head spin.  The only thing that concerns me here is the big OLine for WVA.  The ACC has been pretty mediocre all year and I doubt they have seen a drive from the big uglies like they'll see today.  UNC just needs to outlast WVA and get to the 4th Quarter close.  If that happens, I'm confident UNC will win this game.  They just can't get blown out early.  So my play is:

UNC +2.5 over West Virginia (1.07 units to win 1 unit)

Florida State (-6) over Wisconsin.....I just don't have much respect for Wisconsin.  They run the ball and hope to beat the livin' crap out of the opposing defense.  Not a bad strategy but if that strategy doesn't work, are you adaptable enough to make some adjustments?  The answer to that for Wisconsin is "NO".  They just are so one-dimensional that, if FSU stops the run and I think they will, forcing Wisky to the air is just disastrous in my opinion.  FSU is not very good on offense but I think their defense has the potential to keep Wisky to 14 points or less.  If FSU can scrap up points in the 20's, then the cover is in order.  Speed kills so I would anticipate FSU running a lot of guys in and out defensively to keep their guys fresh so Wisky's big OLine doesn't wear them out.  The Big 10, in my opinion, is an old antiquated philosophy type conference and Wisky epitomizes this type of football.  FSU are not world-beaters by any stretch but I think they got a weak opponent here.  So, my play is:

Florida State (-6) (1.07 units to win 1 unit) over Wisconsin

California (-10) over Miami-Florida.....I made a horrific mistake not getting Cal earlier in the week.  The line had been 7.5 in some places and now I'm having to give 10.  Not good.  Because of that, I'm only going 1 unit on this game.  I had targeted this game as a bigger play but the line has tempered my enthusiasm.  If you combine the fact that the 'Canes are going cross-country to play a virtual home game with Cal and take some of the suspensions that Miami-Fla has endured and take the fact that QB Harris will be starting as a freshman in this game for the 'Canes, this all spells doom in my opinion for the 'Canes.  This is a tall order for the 'Canes.  Cal is OK.  They run the ball effectively and I've always believed Tedford to be an adapatable coach.  Jhavid Best should have a pretty good day as the 'Canes give up 146 yards per game on average.  I would think Best could go for 200 yards today.  If that happens, the 'Canes could be in for a long afternoon.  I'm not a big fan of Cal's QB Longshore, who gets the start today, but as long as Cal can run the ball effectively, Longshore should be OK.  So, my play is:

California (-10) over Miami-Florida (1.09 units to win 1 unit)

Good luck to all and enjoy the games today.  Should be a fun day.

E

As you'll see in my spreadsheet, I'm going relatively hard on Central Michigan.  While the 2 teams are the same, I think the fact that the Motor City Bowl made special arrangements to have CMU play there speaks volumes to how CMU is going to come out and play today.

Usually, the MAC conference championship winner goes to play in the Motor City Bowl.  Buffalo beat Ball State in early December to earn them the right to go to Detroit.  Just reading between the lines, it looks to me that Buffalo really wanted to play in Toronto for the International Bowl no matter what the result vs. Ball State.  So, basically, the Motor City Bowl got the snub.  Ball State should have been the representative if Buffalo didn't want to go but they didn't get an invite for one reason or another.  My guess is that the Motor City Bowl wanted one of the directional Michigan schools to come play in this.  There should be a huge contigent of Chippewa fans coming to this game.  Combining this with LeFavour's last game as a Chippewa equals a stellar performance to me for this bowl.

Florida Atlantic won the New Orleans Bowl last year but I am relatively unimpressed with how they don't seem to convert yards into points.  A 25 point per game average versus a relatively weak Sun Belt isn't all that impressive to me.  Central Michigan averages 30 points per game against a better conference in the MAC.  The Sun Belt is getting better but the MAC, in my opinion, is currently close to being on par with the Big Ten (I hold the opinion that certainly a Top 5 MAC team can compete with any school including Ohio State and Penn State in the Big Ten).  To me, there is a competition differential in this game.  The Sun Belt continues to improve but they are where the MAC was 5-10 years ago.  Central Michigan had Ball State on the ropes and let them slip through their fingers.  They get a Homecoming Bowl Game today.  If the Chippewas can just hold FAU to their point average of 25, I think the chalk cover is in order because I would be shocked if the Chippewas don't get, at least, 30 points in this game.  It should be more like 40.

Heavy on Central Michigan today for 3 units.  I got them on Monday before Christmas @ -6 which is fantastic.  Here's to hoping for a Chippewa blowout.

Good luck to all.

E

Admittedly, I'm a big fan of TCU.  If you watched any of their loss to Utah, you realize just how good TCU is.  I did not see their Oklahoma loss but can certainly say that I understand why they lost to them and don't hold it against them.

However, I'm making a moneyline play on Boise State and here is why:  this is strictly a motivational play.  I think Boise is comparable in talent to TCU.  TCU's defense is absolutely stellar but if they have a bit of an Achilles heal it would be in defending the pass.  They still haven't given up a lot in the passing game, yards-wise, but I like QB Moore from Boise to get things done in the passing game better than any QB TCU can throw out there.

The truth is:  Boise has been pretty stingy defensively against the run.  Boise coach Pederson has proven in the past that he can handle a large layoff better, in my opinion, than TCU and Patterson.  Remember, Boise beat a pretty good Oklahoma team in a BCS game recently.

I also think Boise has some motivation to prove the system got it wrong again by locking them out of the BCS festivities.  TCU needs rhythm on offensive and this lay off could make for some problems for TCU.  TCU can stay in the game if their defense is in top form.  No question that TCU's defense is stellar.  But I just think Boise finds a way to get this done on Tuesday night.  So, my play is:

Boise State ML +130 (1 unit to win 1.3 units)

Good luck to all.

E

I had no earthly idea that Sonny Lubick had retired and Fitzgerald was Colo State's new head coach.  When I was watching this yesterday, I couldn't believe it.  Sorry for sounding like I knew what I was talking about.  The bet came through but not knowing who is coaching CSU is inexcusable.  I'll try better next time.

E